**Forecast model spreads create tight odds between sub-3°C and 13°C+ minima for Moscow on September 19.** Recent GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs show overnight lows clustered near 10–12°C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, but small differences in cloud timing or a late-arriving cooler air mass could shift the minimum by several degrees either way. Radiative cooling rates depend on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing; clearer conditions would favor stronger surface cooling toward the lower end of the range, while increased moisture or wind would limit it. Historical September minima average around 7–8°C, yet current guidance sits above that baseline. Fresh model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 19?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 19?
3°C or below 100%
13°C or higher 98%
4°C 40%
5°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
3°C or below
100%
4°C
40%
5°C
40%
6°C
40%
7°C
40%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
40%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C or higher
98%
3°C or below 100%
13°C or higher 98%
4°C 40%
5°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 19, 2026
3°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
4°C
$0 Vol.
40%
5°C
$0 Vol.
40%
6°C
$0 Vol.
40%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model spreads create tight odds between sub-3°C and 13°C+ minima for Moscow on September 19.** Recent GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs show overnight lows clustered near 10–12°C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, but small differences in cloud timing or a late-arriving cooler air mass could shift the minimum by several degrees either way. Radiative cooling rates depend on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing; clearer conditions would favor stronger surface cooling toward the lower end of the range, while increased moisture or wind would limit it. Historical September minima average around 7–8°C, yet current guidance sits above that baseline. Fresh model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model spreads create tight odds between sub-3°C and 13°C+ minima for Moscow on September 19.** Recent GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs show overnight lows clustered near 10–12°C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, but small differences in cloud timing or a late-arriving cooler air mass could shift the minimum by several degrees either way. Radiative cooling rates depend on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing; clearer conditions would favor stronger surface cooling toward the lower end of the range, while increased moisture or wind would limit it. Historical September minima average around 7–8°C, yet current guidance sits above that baseline. Fresh model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model spreads create tight odds between sub-3°C and 13°C+ minima for Moscow on September 19.** Recent GFS, ECMWF, and regional runs show overnight lows clustered near 10–12°C under partly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, but small differences in cloud timing or a late-arriving cooler air mass could shift the minimum by several degrees either way. Radiative cooling rates depend on cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing; clearer conditions would favor stronger surface cooling toward the lower end of the range, while increased moisture or wind would limit it. Historical September minima average around 7–8°C, yet current guidance sits above that baseline. Fresh model updates and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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