Recent ensemble forecasts from DWD-MOS and GFS guidance indicate Munich's overnight low on September 23 will likely settle between 5–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This baseline supports the market's clustered probabilities around 0–1 °C, yet the 35 % implied chance for –1 °C or below captures residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression after sunset. Clear skies promote stronger surface heat loss than average September conditions (climatological low 9.2 °C), while any increase in cloud cover or wind would limit the drop. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow gap between typical radiative cooling and the historical record low of –1 °C set in 1964, with resolution hinging on the final 00–06 UTC observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 23?
-1°C or below 34%
1°C 27%
0°C 25%
2°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
-1°C or below
34%
0°C
25%
1°C
27%
2°C
22%
3°C
22%
4°C
9%
5°C
21%
6°C
15%
7°C
21%
8°C
1%
9°C or higher
1%
-1°C or below 34%
1°C 27%
0°C 25%
2°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
-1°C or below
$0 Vol.
34%
0°C
$0 Vol.
25%
1°C
$0 Vol.
27%
2°C
$0 Vol.
22%
3°C
$0 Vol.
22%
4°C
$162 Vol.
9%
5°C
$0 Vol.
21%
6°C
$100 Vol.
15%
7°C
$170 Vol.
21%
8°C
$100 Vol.
1%
9°C or higher
$291 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from DWD-MOS and GFS guidance indicate Munich's overnight low on September 23 will likely settle between 5–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This baseline supports the market's clustered probabilities around 0–1 °C, yet the 35 % implied chance for –1 °C or below captures residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression after sunset. Clear skies promote stronger surface heat loss than average September conditions (climatological low 9.2 °C), while any increase in cloud cover or wind would limit the drop. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow gap between typical radiative cooling and the historical record low of –1 °C set in 1964, with resolution hinging on the final 00–06 UTC observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$823End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from DWD-MOS and GFS guidance indicate Munich's overnight low on September 23 will likely settle between 5–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This baseline supports the market's clustered probabilities around 0–1 °C, yet the 35 % implied chance for –1 °C or below captures residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression after sunset. Clear skies promote stronger surface heat loss than average September conditions (climatological low 9.2 °C), while any increase in cloud cover or wind would limit the drop. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow gap between typical radiative cooling and the historical record low of –1 °C set in 1964, with resolution hinging on the final 00–06 UTC observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$823End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from DWD-MOS and GFS guidance indicate Munich's overnight low on September 23 will likely settle between 5–9 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and high pressure favoring radiative cooling. This baseline supports the market's clustered probabilities around 0–1 °C, yet the 35 % implied chance for –1 °C or below captures residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression after sunset. Clear skies promote stronger surface heat loss than average September conditions (climatological low 9.2 °C), while any increase in cloud cover or wind would limit the drop. Traders are therefore pricing the narrow gap between typical radiative cooling and the historical record low of –1 °C set in 1964, with resolution hinging on the final 00–06 UTC observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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