Official observations from National Weather Service stations, including LaGuardia and Central Park, recorded a minimum temperature of 74–75°F overnight into August 11, 2026, consistent with ensemble model guidance showing weak nocturnal cooling under a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for New York City, where average lows hover around 70°F but rise during periods of southerly flow and limited radiational cooling. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event data, leaving virtually no room for revision. Unlikely challenges include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-processing adjustments, though such shifts rarely exceed 1–2°F given standardized measurement protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 11?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 11?
74-75°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$24,526 Vol.
$24,526 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
Yes
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84°F or higher
No
74-75°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$24,526 Vol.
$24,526 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
65°F or below
$1,425 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$1,418 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$451 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,437 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$3,340 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$4,906 Vol.
Yes
76-77°F
$3,531 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$3,370 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,269 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$2,079 Vol.
No
84°F or higher
$1,300 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from National Weather Service stations, including LaGuardia and Central Park, recorded a minimum temperature of 74–75°F overnight into August 11, 2026, consistent with ensemble model guidance showing weak nocturnal cooling under a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for New York City, where average lows hover around 70°F but rise during periods of southerly flow and limited radiational cooling. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event data, leaving virtually no room for revision. Unlikely challenges include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-processing adjustments, though such shifts rarely exceed 1–2°F given standardized measurement protocols.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$24,526End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from National Weather Service stations, including LaGuardia and Central Park, recorded a minimum temperature of 74–75°F overnight into August 11, 2026, consistent with ensemble model guidance showing weak nocturnal cooling under a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for New York City, where average lows hover around 70°F but rise during periods of southerly flow and limited radiational cooling. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event data, leaving virtually no room for revision. Unlikely challenges include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-processing adjustments, though such shifts rarely exceed 1–2°F given standardized measurement protocols.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,526End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from National Weather Service stations, including LaGuardia and Central Park, recorded a minimum temperature of 74–75°F overnight into August 11, 2026, consistent with ensemble model guidance showing weak nocturnal cooling under a warm, humid air mass with dew points near 70°F. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology for New York City, where average lows hover around 70°F but rise during periods of southerly flow and limited radiational cooling. The 100% market-implied probability reflects verified post-event data, leaving virtually no room for revision. Unlikely challenges include station-specific microclimate discrepancies or post-processing adjustments, though such shifts rarely exceed 1–2°F given standardized measurement protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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