Official temperature observations from New York City stations, including Central Park and LaGuardia Airport under National Weather Service protocols, recorded a daily minimum of 68–69°F on August 16, 2026. This outcome reflects verified hourly readings and quality-controlled data releases that close the market window once the calendar day ends. The 100% market-implied probability stems from the certainty of post-event verification, where final lows are determined by standardized instrumentation rather than forecasts. Minor challenges could arise only from rare post-processing revisions due to sensor calibration issues or station-specific anomalies, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are infrequent and small in magnitude for summer minimum temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 16?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 16?
68-69°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$20,535 Vol.
$20,535 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
63°F or below
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82°F or higher
No
68-69°F 100.0%
63°F or below <1%
64-65°F <1%
66-67°F <1%
$20,535 Vol.
$20,535 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
63°F or below
$432 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$714 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$1,366 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$1,452 Vol.
Yes
70-71°F
$8,872 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$3,104 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$2,543 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$724 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$667 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$381 Vol.
No
82°F or higher
$281 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official temperature observations from New York City stations, including Central Park and LaGuardia Airport under National Weather Service protocols, recorded a daily minimum of 68–69°F on August 16, 2026. This outcome reflects verified hourly readings and quality-controlled data releases that close the market window once the calendar day ends. The 100% market-implied probability stems from the certainty of post-event verification, where final lows are determined by standardized instrumentation rather than forecasts. Minor challenges could arise only from rare post-processing revisions due to sensor calibration issues or station-specific anomalies, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are infrequent and small in magnitude for summer minimum temperatures.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$20,535End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official temperature observations from New York City stations, including Central Park and LaGuardia Airport under National Weather Service protocols, recorded a daily minimum of 68–69°F on August 16, 2026. This outcome reflects verified hourly readings and quality-controlled data releases that close the market window once the calendar day ends. The 100% market-implied probability stems from the certainty of post-event verification, where final lows are determined by standardized instrumentation rather than forecasts. Minor challenges could arise only from rare post-processing revisions due to sensor calibration issues or station-specific anomalies, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are infrequent and small in magnitude for summer minimum temperatures.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,535End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Official temperature observations from New York City stations, including Central Park and LaGuardia Airport under National Weather Service protocols, recorded a daily minimum of 68–69°F on August 16, 2026. This outcome reflects verified hourly readings and quality-controlled data releases that close the market window once the calendar day ends. The 100% market-implied probability stems from the certainty of post-event verification, where final lows are determined by standardized instrumentation rather than forecasts. Minor challenges could arise only from rare post-processing revisions due to sensor calibration issues or station-specific anomalies, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are infrequent and small in magnitude for summer minimum temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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