Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 13?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 Vol.
$21,023 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,023 Vol.
$21,023 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
21°C or below
$504 Vol.
No
22°C
$614 Vol.
No
23°C
$415 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,551 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,429 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,807 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$4,506 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,731 Vol.
No
29°C
$320 Vol.
No
30°C
$445 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$702 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$21,023End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,023End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus assigns near-certainty to a 26°C low in Shanghai on August 13 because official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and AccuWeather converge on that exact minimum under persistent cloud cover and scattered thundershowers associated with a tropical rainstorm system. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling while elevated humidity keeps temperatures from falling further, consistent with mid-August climatology when monsoon moisture lingers. The market-implied probability reflects this tight model agreement and historical clustering of overnight lows between 25–27°C. Clear-sky development or stronger northerly winds that enhance cooling, along with any last-minute forecast revisions, remain the primary variables that could realistically shift the recorded minimum before official observations finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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