Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on August 16 will settle near 26°C amid subtropical monsoon conditions, passing showers, and broken cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when average lows range 25–26°C and humidity remains elevated around 75–80%. Trader consensus at 99.6% for exactly 26°C reflects this strong model agreement and recent observational trends showing stable warm nights without significant frontal passages. Minor deviations remain possible if localized heavy rainfall enhances evaporative cooling or if updated runs shift the minimum by 1°C, though such changes appear unlikely given the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 16?
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$22,454 Vol.
$22,454 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$22,454 Vol.
$22,454 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
20°C or below
$323 Vol.
No
21°C
$323 Vol.
No
22°C
$538 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,207 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,186 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,942 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,005 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$1,090 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,174 Vol.
No
29°C
$323 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$345 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on August 16 will settle near 26°C amid subtropical monsoon conditions, passing showers, and broken cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when average lows range 25–26°C and humidity remains elevated around 75–80%. Trader consensus at 99.6% for exactly 26°C reflects this strong model agreement and recent observational trends showing stable warm nights without significant frontal passages. Minor deviations remain possible if localized heavy rainfall enhances evaporative cooling or if updated runs shift the minimum by 1°C, though such changes appear unlikely given the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$22,454End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on August 16 will settle near 26°C amid subtropical monsoon conditions, passing showers, and broken cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when average lows range 25–26°C and humidity remains elevated around 75–80%. Trader consensus at 99.6% for exactly 26°C reflects this strong model agreement and recent observational trends showing stable warm nights without significant frontal passages. Minor deviations remain possible if localized heavy rainfall enhances evaporative cooling or if updated runs shift the minimum by 1°C, though such changes appear unlikely given the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,454End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on August 16 will settle near 26°C amid subtropical monsoon conditions, passing showers, and broken cloud cover that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-August, when average lows range 25–26°C and humidity remains elevated around 75–80%. Trader consensus at 99.6% for exactly 26°C reflects this strong model agreement and recent observational trends showing stable warm nights without significant frontal passages. Minor deviations remain possible if localized heavy rainfall enhances evaporative cooling or if updated runs shift the minimum by 1°C, though such changes appear unlikely given the narrow forecast spread and proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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