**Forecast models for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C amid cloudy conditions, light rain, and high humidity near 80–90%, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 26°C versus lower thresholds.** Subtropical monsoon influences, including lingering moisture and variable wind patterns from the South China Sea, limit nocturnal cooling while urban heat effects and cloud cover further moderate overnight drops. Official Chinese meteorological guidance and regional ensembles show limited diurnal range on this date, with recent observations confirming daytime highs near 30–32°C and only modest evening declines. Traders weigh these stable but uncertain conditions against potential model shifts in precipitation timing or wind strength that could alter the exact low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 15?
20°C or below 98%
21°C 98%
22°C 91%
23°C 91%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
98%
21°C
98%
22°C
91%
23°C
91%
24°C
6%
25°C
41%
26°C
52%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
20°C or below 98%
21°C 98%
22°C 91%
23°C 91%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
98%
21°C
$10 Vol.
98%
22°C
$100 Vol.
91%
23°C
$128 Vol.
91%
24°C
$96 Vol.
6%
25°C
$22 Vol.
41%
26°C
$92 Vol.
52%
27°C
$244 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$154 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$42 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C amid cloudy conditions, light rain, and high humidity near 80–90%, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 26°C versus lower thresholds.**
Subtropical monsoon influences, including lingering moisture and variable wind patterns from the South China Sea, limit nocturnal cooling while urban heat effects and cloud cover further moderate overnight drops. Official Chinese meteorological guidance and regional ensembles show limited diurnal range on this date, with recent observations confirming daytime highs near 30–32°C and only modest evening declines. Traders weigh these stable but uncertain conditions against potential model shifts in precipitation timing or wind strength that could alter the exact low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$930End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C amid cloudy conditions, light rain, and high humidity near 80–90%, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 26°C versus lower thresholds.**
Subtropical monsoon influences, including lingering moisture and variable wind patterns from the South China Sea, limit nocturnal cooling while urban heat effects and cloud cover further moderate overnight drops. Official Chinese meteorological guidance and regional ensembles show limited diurnal range on this date, with recent observations confirming daytime highs near 30–32°C and only modest evening declines. Traders weigh these stable but uncertain conditions against potential model shifts in precipitation timing or wind strength that could alter the exact low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$930End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Shenzhen on September 15, 2026, indicate a minimum temperature near 25–26°C amid cloudy conditions, light rain, and high humidity near 80–90%, producing closely matched market-implied odds around 26°C versus lower thresholds.** Subtropical monsoon influences, including lingering moisture and variable wind patterns from the South China Sea, limit nocturnal cooling while urban heat effects and cloud cover further moderate overnight drops. Official Chinese meteorological guidance and regional ensembles show limited diurnal range on this date, with recent observations confirming daytime highs near 30–32°C and only modest evening declines. Traders weigh these stable but uncertain conditions against potential model shifts in precipitation timing or wind strength that could alter the exact low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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