The dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 98.2%
<4m sq km <1%
4.2-4.4m sq km <1%
4.0-4.2m sq km <1%
$89,029 Vol.
$89,029 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
1%
4.0-4.2m sq km
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
1%
4.4-4.6m sq km
98%
4.6-4.8m sq km
<1%
4.8-5m sq km
<1%
5m+ sq km
<1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 98.2%
<4m sq km <1%
4.2-4.4m sq km <1%
4.0-4.2m sq km <1%
$89,029 Vol.
$89,029 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$37,140 Vol.
1%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$9,208 Vol.
1%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$4,566 Vol.
1%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$5,810 Vol.
98%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$11,086 Vol.
<1%
4.8-5m sq km
$5,074 Vol.
<1%
5m+ sq km
$16,145 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$89,029End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$89,029End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant 98.2% market-implied probability for a 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer minimum Arctic sea ice extent reflects National Snow and Ice Data Center observations confirming the 2026 seasonal low near 4.60 million km² on September 12, with subsequent gains across analyses. This outcome aligns with the post-2007 range shaped by long-term warming-driven decline, though moderated this summer by cooler high-latitude ocean conditions offsetting warmer melt in peripheral seas like the Beaufort and East Siberian. Historical analogs and satellite records underscore the result as typical for recent years rather than extreme. Late-season model revisions or unexpected melt could theoretically shift final figures, yet rising extent post-minimum makes such adjustments improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions