Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent in mid-March 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers and tied with the prior year for the lowest in the satellite record, has established a thin starting point for the 2026 melt season. Daily extents through April and early May have remained at or near record lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 12 percent per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Official monitoring from NSIDC and NOAA shows typical seasonal decline rates so far, yet the reduced ice volume and thinner cover increase vulnerability to rapid melt under continued above-average temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these baseline conditions heavily against the possibility of cooler summer weather or thicker multiyear ice persistence that could moderate losses, with new NSIDC updates expected to refine September minimum projections through the peak melt months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 12.4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 Vol.
$48,619 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 12.4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 Vol.
$48,619 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 Vol.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,465 Vol.
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 Vol.
12%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,387 Vol.
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 Vol.
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent in mid-March 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers and tied with the prior year for the lowest in the satellite record, has established a thin starting point for the 2026 melt season. Daily extents through April and early May have remained at or near record lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 12 percent per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Official monitoring from NSIDC and NOAA shows typical seasonal decline rates so far, yet the reduced ice volume and thinner cover increase vulnerability to rapid melt under continued above-average temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these baseline conditions heavily against the possibility of cooler summer weather or thicker multiyear ice persistence that could moderate losses, with new NSIDC updates expected to refine September minimum projections through the peak melt months.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$48,619End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent in mid-March 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers and tied with the prior year for the lowest in the satellite record, has established a thin starting point for the 2026 melt season. Daily extents through April and early May have remained at or near record lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 12 percent per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Official monitoring from NSIDC and NOAA shows typical seasonal decline rates so far, yet the reduced ice volume and thinner cover increase vulnerability to rapid melt under continued above-average temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these baseline conditions heavily against the possibility of cooler summer weather or thicker multiyear ice persistence that could moderate losses, with new NSIDC updates expected to refine September minimum projections through the peak melt months.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$48,619End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent in mid-March 2026, at 14.29 million square kilometers and tied with the prior year for the lowest in the satellite record, has established a thin starting point for the 2026 melt season. Daily extents through April and early May have remained at or near record lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 12 percent per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Official monitoring from NSIDC and NOAA shows typical seasonal decline rates so far, yet the reduced ice volume and thinner cover increase vulnerability to rapid melt under continued above-average temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these baseline conditions heavily against the possibility of cooler summer weather or thicker multiyear ice persistence that could moderate losses, with new NSIDC updates expected to refine September minimum projections through the peak melt months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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