Ongoing indirect mediated diplomacy between the United States and Iran, centered on ending eight months of conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions and blockades, releasing frozen assets, and addressing nuclear issues, shapes trader views on the timing of any senior direct meeting. Qatar-mediated shuttle talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in late September 2026 marked the first such contacts in months, following Iran's seven-day proposal and U.S. responses that included initial rejection alongside signals of continued engagement. Prior June 2026 Switzerland talks produced a short-lived roadmap that quickly unraveled, while President Trump has referenced a post-midterm decision window and further talks this week. These developments, alongside Iran's conditions for progress and U.S. emphasis on nuclear concessions, keep near-term senior bilateral meetings possible but contingent on bridging gaps through mediators.