Elevated inflation readings and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish September 16 shift underpin the 81.5% market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The central bank raised the target range to 3.75–4.00% and revised its median dot plot to 4.1% by year-end, with 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional increase. August CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, while core CPI rose 2.4% annually; energy prices remain elevated amid geopolitical pressures. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, signaling a balanced labor market that permits further tightening without immediate slack concerns. Traders are monitoring the October 14 CPI release and any fresh communications ahead of the meeting for confirmation or reversal of the current pricing.