In Lithuania’s Northern Nalšia single-member constituency, encompassing Ignalina and Visaginas, the by-election remains highly competitive as traders price a fragmented field. Gintautas Kindurys leads at 34 percent implied probability, followed by Vladislav Kondratovič at 27 percent and Nikolajus Lebedevičius at 17 percent, with several others between 3 and 14 percent. This distribution reflects local voter divisions across parties including LVŽS, regional groups, and independents, plus the absence of a dominant incumbent or clear national swing. Upcoming campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in turnout among Russian-speaking and rural blocs could quickly widen gaps or consolidate support behind one contender before polling day.