The district's D+6 partisan voting index and inclusion of Democratic-leaning Portland suburbs alongside portions of the Willamette Valley establish a structural advantage for the incumbent Democrat, who secured her party's nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary after winning reelection by roughly three points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with limited Republican fundraising and a nominee facing established voter patterns in this battleground-leaning but reliably blue-leaning area. Trader consensus at 94% for Democrats reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would alter the balance ahead of the November general election. Late national swings, an unexpected scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still narrow the margin, though historical base rates for similar districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트OR-06 House Election Winner
OR-06 House Election Winner
$19,637 거래량
$19,637 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
2%
$19,637 거래량
$19,637 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$10,022 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$9,615 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+6 partisan voting index and inclusion of Democratic-leaning Portland suburbs alongside portions of the Willamette Valley establish a structural advantage for the incumbent Democrat, who secured her party's nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary after winning reelection by roughly three points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with limited Republican fundraising and a nominee facing established voter patterns in this battleground-leaning but reliably blue-leaning area. Trader consensus at 94% for Democrats reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would alter the balance ahead of the November general election. Late national swings, an unexpected scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still narrow the margin, though historical base rates for similar districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
거래량
$19,637종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's D+6 partisan voting index and inclusion of Democratic-leaning Portland suburbs alongside portions of the Willamette Valley establish a structural advantage for the incumbent Democrat, who secured her party's nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary after winning reelection by roughly three points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with limited Republican fundraising and a nominee facing established voter patterns in this battleground-leaning but reliably blue-leaning area. Trader consensus at 94% for Democrats reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would alter the balance ahead of the November general election. Late national swings, an unexpected scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still narrow the margin, though historical base rates for similar districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$19,637종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's D+6 partisan voting index and inclusion of Democratic-leaning Portland suburbs alongside portions of the Willamette Valley establish a structural advantage for the incumbent Democrat, who secured her party's nomination unopposed in the May 2026 primary after winning reelection by roughly three points in 2024. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, consistent with limited Republican fundraising and a nominee facing established voter patterns in this battleground-leaning but reliably blue-leaning area. Trader consensus at 94% for Democrats reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would alter the balance ahead of the November general election. Late national swings, an unexpected scandal, or unusually high Republican turnout could still narrow the margin, though historical base rates for similar districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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