Hong Kong Observatory seasonal guidance for May-July 2026 calls for normal to above-normal rainfall, reflecting the strengthening southwest monsoon that typically delivers the bulk of May’s precipitation through frequent afternoon thunderstorms and occasional tropical moisture surges. With roughly 88 mm recorded through mid-May and daily rain probabilities holding at 40-80 % for the remainder of the month, traders are weighing the potential for additional convective bursts against the chance of drier interludes. Historical May totals average near 305 mm with wide year-to-year swings driven by monsoon timing and storm tracks, producing the tight spread between the 240 mm+ outcome and nearby bins as models continue to diverge on the final two weeks’ accumulation.