Putin maintains consolidated control over Russia's personalized autocracy through loyal security services, constitutional term extensions allowing rule until 2036, and suppression of opposition, with no credible elite fractures or institutional challenges emerging since spring 2026 coup rumors tied to Sergei Shoigu and assassination fears prompted tighter Kremlin security measures. Official actions, including public addresses projecting strength at the United Russia congress and management of wartime economic strains without triggering defections, have reinforced regime stability. Traders assign the low 7% implied probability for a 2026 attempt to the absence of triggers such as successor rivalries, military command revolts, or sudden leadership vacuums, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian continuity under similar pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$126,085 Vol.
$126,085 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$126,085 Vol.
$126,085 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains consolidated control over Russia's personalized autocracy through loyal security services, constitutional term extensions allowing rule until 2036, and suppression of opposition, with no credible elite fractures or institutional challenges emerging since spring 2026 coup rumors tied to Sergei Shoigu and assassination fears prompted tighter Kremlin security measures. Official actions, including public addresses projecting strength at the United Russia congress and management of wartime economic strains without triggering defections, have reinforced regime stability. Traders assign the low 7% implied probability for a 2026 attempt to the absence of triggers such as successor rivalries, military command revolts, or sudden leadership vacuums, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian continuity under similar pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$126,085End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains consolidated control over Russia's personalized autocracy through loyal security services, constitutional term extensions allowing rule until 2036, and suppression of opposition, with no credible elite fractures or institutional challenges emerging since spring 2026 coup rumors tied to Sergei Shoigu and assassination fears prompted tighter Kremlin security measures. Official actions, including public addresses projecting strength at the United Russia congress and management of wartime economic strains without triggering defections, have reinforced regime stability. Traders assign the low 7% implied probability for a 2026 attempt to the absence of triggers such as successor rivalries, military command revolts, or sudden leadership vacuums, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian continuity under similar pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,085End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains consolidated control over Russia's personalized autocracy through loyal security services, constitutional term extensions allowing rule until 2036, and suppression of opposition, with no credible elite fractures or institutional challenges emerging since spring 2026 coup rumors tied to Sergei Shoigu and assassination fears prompted tighter Kremlin security measures. Official actions, including public addresses projecting strength at the United Russia congress and management of wartime economic strains without triggering defections, have reinforced regime stability. Traders assign the low 7% implied probability for a 2026 attempt to the absence of triggers such as successor rivalries, military command revolts, or sudden leadership vacuums, consistent with historical patterns of authoritarian continuity under similar pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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