Recent polls place PSOE seat projections mostly between 104 and 119, with averages near 110-113 and modest recent gains in some surveys narrowing the gap to PP. The snap election on 29 November, called after parliamentary setbacks, combined with the Urda train disaster and subsequent transport minister resignation, has produced mixed voter shifts without clear backlash against the government. Left fragmentation, including Broad Front and Podemos dynamics, and the D’Hondt allocation system keep outcomes sensitive to regional turnout and late transfers. Traders price the 108-113 and 114-119 bins highest because pollster ranges cluster there while right-bloc majorities remain consistent, leaving room for final-week movement to shift probabilities among the central ranges.