Widespread D4 exceptional drought conditions across at least a dozen states, confirmed in the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25, 2026, underpin the market's 100% consensus on 10 or more states. Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal temperatures drove soil moisture depletion, groundwater declines, and agricultural stress from the Intermountain West through the High Plains and Southern Plains, with notable D4 expansion in Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas amid limited monsoon relief and seasonal dryness. Official USDM data, incorporating precipitation deficits, streamflow, and vegetation indices, show D4 areas concentrated in these regions consistent with historical analogs for late-summer heat domes. This positioning could face limited revision only if post-map quality-control adjustments or boundary refinements alter state counts, though such changes remain rare given the data cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of August 25, 2026?
10 or more states 100.0%
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
$2,280 Vol.
$2,280 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
0 states
No
1-2 states
No
3-4 states
No
5-6 states
No
7-9 states
No
10 or more states
Yes
10 or more states 100.0%
0 states <1%
1-2 states <1%
3-4 states <1%
$2,280 Vol.
$2,280 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
0 states
$102 Vol.
No
1-2 states
$90 Vol.
No
3-4 states
$96 Vol.
No
5-6 states
$96 Vol.
No
7-9 states
$71 Vol.
No
10 or more states
$1,826 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Widespread D4 exceptional drought conditions across at least a dozen states, confirmed in the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25, 2026, underpin the market's 100% consensus on 10 or more states. Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal temperatures drove soil moisture depletion, groundwater declines, and agricultural stress from the Intermountain West through the High Plains and Southern Plains, with notable D4 expansion in Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas amid limited monsoon relief and seasonal dryness. Official USDM data, incorporating precipitation deficits, streamflow, and vegetation indices, show D4 areas concentrated in these regions consistent with historical analogs for late-summer heat domes. This positioning could face limited revision only if post-map quality-control adjustments or boundary refinements alter state counts, though such changes remain rare given the data cutoff.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$2,280End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Widespread D4 exceptional drought conditions across at least a dozen states, confirmed in the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25, 2026, underpin the market's 100% consensus on 10 or more states. Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal temperatures drove soil moisture depletion, groundwater declines, and agricultural stress from the Intermountain West through the High Plains and Southern Plains, with notable D4 expansion in Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas amid limited monsoon relief and seasonal dryness. Official USDM data, incorporating precipitation deficits, streamflow, and vegetation indices, show D4 areas concentrated in these regions consistent with historical analogs for late-summer heat domes. This positioning could face limited revision only if post-map quality-control adjustments or boundary refinements alter state counts, though such changes remain rare given the data cutoff.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of August 25, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$2,280End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Widespread D4 exceptional drought conditions across at least a dozen states, confirmed in the U.S. Drought Monitor map valid August 25, 2026, underpin the market's 100% consensus on 10 or more states. Persistent high-pressure systems and above-normal temperatures drove soil moisture depletion, groundwater declines, and agricultural stress from the Intermountain West through the High Plains and Southern Plains, with notable D4 expansion in Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas amid limited monsoon relief and seasonal dryness. Official USDM data, incorporating precipitation deficits, streamflow, and vegetation indices, show D4 areas concentrated in these regions consistent with historical analogs for late-summer heat domes. This positioning could face limited revision only if post-map quality-control adjustments or boundary refinements alter state counts, though such changes remain rare given the data cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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