icon for UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?

UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?

Ended: May 14

Ended: May 14

0.9-1.2% 100.0%

Negative <1%

0.0-0.3% <1%

0.3-0.6% <1%

$53,225 Vol.

$53,225 Vol.

May 14, 2026

Negative

$6,997 Vol.

No

0.0-0.3%

$11,247 Vol.

No

0.3-0.6%

$4,651 Vol.

No

0.6-0.9%

$16,309 Vol.

No

0.9-1.2%

$4,902 Vol.

Yes

1.2-1.5%

$3,810 Vol.

No

1.5-1.8%

$1,654 Vol.

No

1.8%+

$3,654 Vol.

No

0.9-1.2% 100.0%

Negative <1%

0.0-0.3% <1%

0.3-0.6% <1%

$53,225 Vol.

$53,225 Vol.

May 14, 2026

Negative

$6,997 Vol.

No

0.0-0.3%

$11,247 Vol.

No

0.3-0.6%

$4,651 Vol.

No

0.6-0.9%

$16,309 Vol.

No

0.9-1.2%

$4,902 Vol.

Yes

1.2-1.5%

$3,810 Vol.

No

1.5-1.8%

$1,654 Vol.

No

1.8%+

$3,654 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Beware of external links.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.9-1.2%" at 100%, followed by "Negative" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" has generated $53.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" is "0.9-1.2%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Negative" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $53.2K traded on “UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "0.9-1.2%" in the "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "0.9-1.2%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?" market has a growing discussion of 4 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "UK GDP growth in Q1 2026?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.