The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site. Statements by President Trump in October 2025 directed the Pentagon to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent administration clarifications emphasized possible non-explosive or subcritical work, while a March 2026 Senate hearing indicated ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on full-yield underground tests. Congress has considered measures requiring explicit approval for any explosive resumption. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether political signaling will translate into an actual test within any near-term window, balanced against technical readiness, diplomatic signaling goals, and legislative constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$770,068 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
4%
$770,068 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$52,068 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site. Statements by President Trump in October 2025 directed the Pentagon to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent administration clarifications emphasized possible non-explosive or subcritical work, while a March 2026 Senate hearing indicated ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on full-yield underground tests. Congress has considered measures requiring explicit approval for any explosive resumption. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether political signaling will translate into an actual test within any near-term window, balanced against technical readiness, diplomatic signaling goals, and legislative constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$770,068End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site. Statements by President Trump in October 2025 directed the Pentagon to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent administration clarifications emphasized possible non-explosive or subcritical work, while a March 2026 Senate hearing indicated ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on full-yield underground tests. Congress has considered measures requiring explicit approval for any explosive resumption. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether political signaling will translate into an actual test within any near-term window, balanced against technical readiness, diplomatic signaling goals, and legislative constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$770,068End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site. Statements by President Trump in October 2025 directed the Pentagon to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing concerns over their activities and the impending expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent administration clarifications emphasized possible non-explosive or subcritical work, while a March 2026 Senate hearing indicated ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on full-yield underground tests. Congress has considered measures requiring explicit approval for any explosive resumption. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether political signaling will translate into an actual test within any near-term window, balanced against technical readiness, diplomatic signaling goals, and legislative constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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