Recent observational data and emission trends reinforce the current 83.5% market-implied odds against any change. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from the Mercator Research Institute’s carbon budget, which relies on the IPCC AR6 2021 estimate of roughly 400 Gt CO₂ remaining from 2020 and applies a fixed annual emissions rate of 42.2 Gt. With global CO₂ output continuing near or above that level through mid-2026, the displayed countdown (approximately 2 years 332 days as of August) shows no adjustment. Updates occur only when new peer-reviewed budgets or verified annual emission inventories are released; no such revision from authoritative sources is scheduled before year-end. Record 2024–2025 temperatures and persistent high emissions have not altered the underlying methodology or prompted an interim recalculation, leaving the deadline stable through December 2026 absent an unexpected data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
17% chance
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
17% chance
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data and emission trends reinforce the current 83.5% market-implied odds against any change. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from the Mercator Research Institute’s carbon budget, which relies on the IPCC AR6 2021 estimate of roughly 400 Gt CO₂ remaining from 2020 and applies a fixed annual emissions rate of 42.2 Gt. With global CO₂ output continuing near or above that level through mid-2026, the displayed countdown (approximately 2 years 332 days as of August) shows no adjustment. Updates occur only when new peer-reviewed budgets or verified annual emission inventories are released; no such revision from authoritative sources is scheduled before year-end. Record 2024–2025 temperatures and persistent high emissions have not altered the underlying methodology or prompted an interim recalculation, leaving the deadline stable through December 2026 absent an unexpected data release.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$10,678End Date
Dec 31, 2029Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent observational data and emission trends reinforce the current 83.5% market-implied odds against any change. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from the Mercator Research Institute’s carbon budget, which relies on the IPCC AR6 2021 estimate of roughly 400 Gt CO₂ remaining from 2020 and applies a fixed annual emissions rate of 42.2 Gt. With global CO₂ output continuing near or above that level through mid-2026, the displayed countdown (approximately 2 years 332 days as of August) shows no adjustment. Updates occur only when new peer-reviewed budgets or verified annual emission inventories are released; no such revision from authoritative sources is scheduled before year-end. Record 2024–2025 temperatures and persistent high emissions have not altered the underlying methodology or prompted an interim recalculation, leaving the deadline stable through December 2026 absent an unexpected data release.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$10,678End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETResolution Source
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent observational data and emission trends reinforce the current 83.5% market-implied odds against any change. The Climate Clock derives its 1.5°C deadline from the Mercator Research Institute’s carbon budget, which relies on the IPCC AR6 2021 estimate of roughly 400 Gt CO₂ remaining from 2020 and applies a fixed annual emissions rate of 42.2 Gt. With global CO₂ output continuing near or above that level through mid-2026, the displayed countdown (approximately 2 years 332 days as of August) shows no adjustment. Updates occur only when new peer-reviewed budgets or verified annual emission inventories are released; no such revision from authoritative sources is scheduled before year-end. Record 2024–2025 temperatures and persistent high emissions have not altered the underlying methodology or prompted an interim recalculation, leaving the deadline stable through December 2026 absent an unexpected data release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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