Ukraine’s ongoing martial law, extended by parliament through at least August 2026, continues to bar presidential elections under constitutional rules, sustaining Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s incumbency well beyond June 30, 2026. Zelenskyy has repeatedly tied any vote to a prior ceasefire and security guarantees, a stance reinforced in recent statements amid stalled peace efforts. Traders assign a 96.5 percent implied probability against his removal by the deadline because these institutional and wartime constraints have held firm for over four years with no immediate path to polls. Even with near-certain consensus, developments such as a sudden diplomatic breakthrough ending active hostilities or an unexpected leadership transition could still shift the outcome before mid-2026.