No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$300,045Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$300,045Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No 5kt bolide has occurred through mid-May 2026 despite a statistically notable Q1 surge in reported fireballs, keeping the implied probability of “No” near 69 percent. NASA’s CNEOS fireball database records only sub-kiloton events, with the largest (March 17 over Ohio) at roughly 0.25 kt; Sentry and infrasound networks show no near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of 5 kt yields. Such strikes arise from meter-scale, still-undetected asteroids that historically reach 5 kt roughly 0.2–0.5 times per year, consistent with the current market consensus. Monitoring continues through year-end via expanded satellite and ground-sensor coverage, with any new large-witness bolide or revised energy estimate the only near-term factor that could shift odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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