No 5kt-or-greater bolide is expected in 2026, consistent with the market’s 75% implied probability for “No.” NASA CNEOS fireball records and ESA monitoring show events at this energy scale occur only a few times per decade on average, placing any single year well below 30% likelihood. No catalogued near-Earth objects carry impact trajectories capable of reaching the threshold, and recent close approaches—including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances—have all been confirmed safe misses with refined orbits. Smaller fireballs detected so far this year, such as the unconfirmed 2026 JN4 event, fell short of 5 kt. Continuous Sentry and Scout surveillance through December will provide the final data releases that resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Frappe météorique de 5kt en 2026 ?
Oui
25% chance
$312,629 Vol.
$312,629 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
25% chance
$312,629 Vol.
$312,629 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No 5kt-or-greater bolide is expected in 2026, consistent with the market’s 75% implied probability for “No.” NASA CNEOS fireball records and ESA monitoring show events at this energy scale occur only a few times per decade on average, placing any single year well below 30% likelihood. No catalogued near-Earth objects carry impact trajectories capable of reaching the threshold, and recent close approaches—including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances—have all been confirmed safe misses with refined orbits. Smaller fireballs detected so far this year, such as the unconfirmed 2026 JN4 event, fell short of 5 kt. Continuous Sentry and Scout surveillance through December will provide the final data releases that resolve the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,629Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No 5kt-or-greater bolide is expected in 2026, consistent with the market’s 75% implied probability for “No.” NASA CNEOS fireball records and ESA monitoring show events at this energy scale occur only a few times per decade on average, placing any single year well below 30% likelihood. No catalogued near-Earth objects carry impact trajectories capable of reaching the threshold, and recent close approaches—including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances—have all been confirmed safe misses with refined orbits. Smaller fireballs detected so far this year, such as the unconfirmed 2026 JN4 event, fell short of 5 kt. Continuous Sentry and Scout surveillance through December will provide the final data releases that resolve the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,629Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...No 5kt-or-greater bolide is expected in 2026, consistent with the market’s 75% implied probability for “No.” NASA CNEOS fireball records and ESA monitoring show events at this energy scale occur only a few times per decade on average, placing any single year well below 30% likelihood. No catalogued near-Earth objects carry impact trajectories capable of reaching the threshold, and recent close approaches—including multiple objects passing within a few lunar distances—have all been confirmed safe misses with refined orbits. Smaller fireballs detected so far this year, such as the unconfirmed 2026 JN4 event, fell short of 5 kt. Continuous Sentry and Scout surveillance through December will provide the final data releases that resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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