The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25 percent in late April underpins the overwhelming 96.5 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 announcement. Recent data show headline inflation rising to 2.4 percent in March and likely peaking near 3 percent in April on higher energy prices, yet core measures remain anchored near the 2 percent target with limited pass-through to broader prices. Moderate GDP growth around 1.5 percent, an elevated unemployment rate, and the central bank’s base-case forecast for inflation returning to target by 2027 reinforce trader expectations that current monetary policy remains appropriate. A sharper sustained inflation spike from geopolitical supply shocks or unexpectedly robust domestic demand could lift hike probabilities, while a sharper growth slowdown might reopen discussions for easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.2%
Increase 2.4%
25 bps decrease 1.2%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,779 Vol.
$26,779 Vol.
10 juin 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
Increase
2%
No change 96.2%
Increase 2.4%
25 bps decrease 1.2%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,779 Vol.
$26,779 Vol.
10 juin 2026
50+ bps decrease
$4,634 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$4,413 Vol.
1%
No change
$9,722 Vol.
96%
Increase
$8,011 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25 percent in late April underpins the overwhelming 96.5 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 announcement. Recent data show headline inflation rising to 2.4 percent in March and likely peaking near 3 percent in April on higher energy prices, yet core measures remain anchored near the 2 percent target with limited pass-through to broader prices. Moderate GDP growth around 1.5 percent, an elevated unemployment rate, and the central bank’s base-case forecast for inflation returning to target by 2027 reinforce trader expectations that current monetary policy remains appropriate. A sharper sustained inflation spike from geopolitical supply shocks or unexpectedly robust domestic demand could lift hike probabilities, while a sharper growth slowdown might reopen discussions for easing.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$26,779Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25 percent in late April underpins the overwhelming 96.5 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 announcement. Recent data show headline inflation rising to 2.4 percent in March and likely peaking near 3 percent in April on higher energy prices, yet core measures remain anchored near the 2 percent target with limited pass-through to broader prices. Moderate GDP growth around 1.5 percent, an elevated unemployment rate, and the central bank’s base-case forecast for inflation returning to target by 2027 reinforce trader expectations that current monetary policy remains appropriate. A sharper sustained inflation spike from geopolitical supply shocks or unexpectedly robust domestic demand could lift hike probabilities, while a sharper growth slowdown might reopen discussions for easing.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$26,779Date de fin
10 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25 percent in late April underpins the overwhelming 96.5 percent market-implied odds of no change at the June 10 announcement. Recent data show headline inflation rising to 2.4 percent in March and likely peaking near 3 percent in April on higher energy prices, yet core measures remain anchored near the 2 percent target with limited pass-through to broader prices. Moderate GDP growth around 1.5 percent, an elevated unemployment rate, and the central bank’s base-case forecast for inflation returning to target by 2027 reinforce trader expectations that current monetary policy remains appropriate. A sharper sustained inflation spike from geopolitical supply shocks or unexpectedly robust domestic demand could lift hike probabilities, while a sharper growth slowdown might reopen discussions for easing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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