The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold the overnight policy rate steady at 2.25 percent, amid surging energy prices from Middle East developments and ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainty, underpins the overwhelming 96.7 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 meeting. Traders interpret the central bank’s communications as a clear signal to look through transitory inflation spikes while monitoring whether higher energy costs feed into broader price pressures or weaken growth further. Recent data showing resilient but not overheating activity, combined with anchored inflation expectations, reinforce this consensus. A shift toward a hike or cut would require either sustained inflation above target or a sharper economic slowdown than currently priced, both of which remain low-probability scenarios before the next Monetary Policy Report on July 15.