Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at 84 percent because recent polls consistently place the Liberal Party senator well ahead of other opposition figures while Lula da Silva holds first. Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and the Liberal Party’s July national convention nomination have consolidated right-wing support behind Flávio despite earlier June audio leaks and a temporary family rift. The remaining field remains fragmented, with Renan Santos of the Missão party drawing limited single-digit backing and candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema polling even lower. Lula’s incumbency and first-round lead near 40 percent keep his own second-place odds minimal, leaving little room for late shifts absent major new developments before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 84%
Renan Santos 8.1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 2.9%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,586,574 Vol.
$4,586,574 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Renan Santos
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 84%
Renan Santos 8.1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 2.9%
Ronaldo Caiado 1.1%
$4,586,574 Vol.
$4,586,574 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Renan Santos
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
3%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro leads trader pricing for second place in Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first round at 84 percent because recent polls consistently place the Liberal Party senator well ahead of other opposition figures while Lula da Silva holds first. Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement and the Liberal Party’s July national convention nomination have consolidated right-wing support behind Flávio despite earlier June audio leaks and a temporary family rift. The remaining field remains fragmented, with Renan Santos of the Missão party drawing limited single-digit backing and candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema polling even lower. Lula’s incumbency and first-round lead near 40 percent keep his own second-place odds minimal, leaving little room for late shifts absent major new developments before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Renan Santos terminera-t-il à la troisième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
Un candidat à la présidence gagnera-t-il dès le premier tour de l'élection au Brésil ?
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