Latest ensemble forecasts from models like GFS and ECMWF project Buenos Aires' highest temperature on May 15 clustering tightly around 18–19°C, fueling the near-even trader split at 30–31.5% implied probabilities for these outcomes amid short-range uncertainty in peak diurnal heating. A recent cold air mass and southerly winds capped May 13 highs at 14–15°C per Aeroparque observations, but partial clearing and lighter winds are now anticipated to enable recovery toward seasonal May norms of 18°C. Key differentiators include variable low-level cloud cover and boundary layer mixing, with final differentiation hinging on Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and real-time soundings before the afternoon maximum. Resolution will draw from official Ezeiza or Aeroparque measurements.