Mexico City's high-elevation setting near 2,240 meters and the onset of the rainy season limit peak temperatures, with official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations and model guidance centering forecasts on 25–26°C for June 14. Afternoon convective clouds and scattered thunderstorms, typical this time of year, cap solar heating and introduce variability that splits trader probabilities nearly evenly between those two outcomes. Recent model runs show minimal spread around this range, consistent with climatological June highs near 24–26°C, while lower or higher extremes remain unlikely absent unusual clear-sky persistence or stronger subsidence. Updated NHC and local agency briefings through the afternoon will refine resolution criteria for the daily maximum.