Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, with Iran maintaining restrictions on commercial traffic and the United States preparing naval escorts to facilitate transits. This deadlock has kept daily ship movements at a small fraction of normal levels since early March, with recent data showing single-digit daily crossings amid mine-clearance operations and route approvals limited to select vessels. Traders see the 20-39 and 40-59 ranges as the most probable outcomes for the week of May 18 because any diplomatic breakthrough or expanded US convoy protection could lift volumes toward the higher end, while renewed Iranian enforcement or delays in demining could cap them near the lower end. Scheduled talks and potential escort deployments in the coming days represent the clearest near-term catalysts for shifts in weekly totals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?
20-39 47%
<20 35%
40-59 31%
80+ 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
24 mai 2026
<20
22%
20-39
38%
40-59
31%
60-79
19%
80+
20%
20-39 47%
<20 35%
40-59 31%
80+ 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
24 mai 2026
<20
$21 Vol.
22%
20-39
$26 Vol.
38%
40-59
$0 Vol.
31%
60-79
$0 Vol.
19%
80+
$8 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, with Iran maintaining restrictions on commercial traffic and the United States preparing naval escorts to facilitate transits. This deadlock has kept daily ship movements at a small fraction of normal levels since early March, with recent data showing single-digit daily crossings amid mine-clearance operations and route approvals limited to select vessels. Traders see the 20-39 and 40-59 ranges as the most probable outcomes for the week of May 18 because any diplomatic breakthrough or expanded US convoy protection could lift volumes toward the higher end, while renewed Iranian enforcement or delays in demining could cap them near the lower end. Scheduled talks and potential escort deployments in the coming days represent the clearest near-term catalysts for shifts in weekly totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$55Date de fin
24 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, with Iran maintaining restrictions on commercial traffic and the United States preparing naval escorts to facilitate transits. This deadlock has kept daily ship movements at a small fraction of normal levels since early March, with recent data showing single-digit daily crossings amid mine-clearance operations and route approvals limited to select vessels. Traders see the 20-39 and 40-59 ranges as the most probable outcomes for the week of May 18 because any diplomatic breakthrough or expanded US convoy protection could lift volumes toward the higher end, while renewed Iranian enforcement or delays in demining could cap them near the lower end. Scheduled talks and potential escort deployments in the coming days represent the clearest near-term catalysts for shifts in weekly totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$55Date de fin
24 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, with Iran maintaining restrictions on commercial traffic and the United States preparing naval escorts to facilitate transits. This deadlock has kept daily ship movements at a small fraction of normal levels since early March, with recent data showing single-digit daily crossings amid mine-clearance operations and route approvals limited to select vessels. Traders see the 20-39 and 40-59 ranges as the most probable outcomes for the week of May 18 because any diplomatic breakthrough or expanded US convoy protection could lift volumes toward the higher end, while renewed Iranian enforcement or delays in demining could cap them near the lower end. Scheduled talks and potential escort deployments in the coming days represent the clearest near-term catalysts for shifts in weekly totals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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