Ongoing air and missile strikes by Israeli and U.S. forces since late February 2026 have targeted Iranian missile sites, air defenses, energy infrastructure, and internal security personnel, yet no official confirmation has emerged of Israeli Defense Forces personnel conducting ground operations inside Iran. Reports of limited special-forces or Mossad activity in early March remain unverified by the IDF or Israeli government, while discussions of potential special operations to secure nuclear sites continue without documented execution. Traders assign low probability to confirmation by late May because any ground incursion would require significant logistical commitment, risk high casualties, and face strong Iranian resistance from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Diplomatic channels and scheduled high-level briefings in the coming weeks could alter the trajectory if they produce new evidence or shift operational planning.