Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsraël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?
Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?
$1,543,433 Vol.
30 juin 2026
31 mai
1%
30 juin
7%
$1,543,433 Vol.
31 mai
$1,237,290 Vol.
1%
30 juin
$231,136 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,543,433Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,543,433Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon, including a May 2026 Washington round and the May 15 extension of the April 16 ceasefire by 45 days, represent the primary diplomatic driver shaping trader views on an Israeli withdrawal timeline. Israel maintains positions south of the Blue Line and has conducted recent airstrikes to prevent Hezbollah rearmament, while Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases under frameworks tied to UN Resolution 1701. These security and political tracks, alongside scheduled follow-up meetings, highlight the contested path to de-escalation, with any progress on Hezbollah disarmament or normalization likely to influence near-term resolution prospects amid persistent regional tensions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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