The Met Office official forecast for London on June 14 anchors the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on a 13°C minimum, reflecting consensus from numerical weather prediction models showing clear or partly cloudy skies, light winds, and radiative cooling under stable high-pressure conditions typical for mid-June. This aligns with climatological norms where overnight lows in the capital average near 12°C during early summer, with recent model runs confirming minimal deviation from that baseline. Traders assign negligible odds to outliers because ensemble forecasts exhibit tight clustering around 12–14°C, with resolution criteria tied to official Met Office observations. A realistic shift would require rapid changes such as unexpected fog formation, stronger northerly advection, or localized urban heat-island effects altering the measured low by 1–2°C before midnight.