Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Tokyo le 15 mai ?
La température la plus basse à Tokyo le 15 mai ?
15°C 35%
14°C 28%
13°C 14.2%
16°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 mai 2026
12°C ou moins
2%
13°C
14%
14°C
28%
15°C
35%
16°C
14%
17°C
3%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C ou plus
<1%
15°C 35%
14°C 28%
13°C 14.2%
16°C 14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 mai 2026
12°C ou moins
$221 Vol.
2%
13°C
$128 Vol.
14%
14°C
$69 Vol.
28%
15°C
$128 Vol.
35%
16°C
$191 Vol.
14%
17°C
$320 Vol.
3%
18°C
$858 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$398 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$565 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$874 Vol.
<1%
22°C ou plus
$341 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$4,093Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,093Date de fin
15 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 33% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature reaching 15°C on May 15, narrowly ahead of 14°C at 26.5% and 16°C at 13.5%, reflecting tight clustering in Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global models like ECMWF and GFS around the mid-May climatological normal of 14.5°C. This uncertainty stems from variable overnight cloud cover inhibiting radiative cooling, light winds potentially allowing deeper chills, and Tokyo's urban heat island effect tempering lows above historical May 15 averages near 15°C. Ensemble forecasts show slight model spread due to a stable high-pressure ridge, with resolution hinging on evening observations and final JMA updates expected within hours; below 13°C or above 17°C faces steep barriers from seasonal baselines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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