Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCoup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Coup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Oui
$154,189 Vol.
$154,189 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$154,189 Vol.
$154,189 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$154,189Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$154,189Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent surges in reported fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have highlighted improved asteroid detection networks, yet none have approached the 10-kiloton energy threshold for a major strike. Ongoing monitoring of near-Earth objects through satellite and infrasound systems confirms only minor events this year, consistent with historical low annual probabilities for impacts of this scale. With mid-2026 approaching and no qualifying bolides detected despite heightened activity in Q1, trader consensus reflects confidence in current planetary defense surveillance capabilities and the infrequency of undetected large meteoroids. Key upcoming catalysts include continued close approaches like asteroid 2026 JH2 and year-end data reviews from global monitoring networks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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