Traders assign an 86% probability against a major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater in 2026 because ongoing near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner observatories has identified no threatening asteroids or comets on collision trajectories. Recent orbital refinements from ground-based and space-based telescopes continue to show all known large objects passing safely, consistent with the historical pattern of such energetic impacts occurring only once every several decades on average. While smaller atmospheric entries happen regularly, the absence of any credible near-term risk keeps market-implied odds stable. Potential new data from wide-field surveys could still alter assessments if an undetected object emerges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCoup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Coup de météore majeur (10kt+) en 2026 ?
Oui
$154,189 Vol.
$154,189 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$154,189 Vol.
$154,189 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign an 86% probability against a major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater in 2026 because ongoing near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner observatories has identified no threatening asteroids or comets on collision trajectories. Recent orbital refinements from ground-based and space-based telescopes continue to show all known large objects passing safely, consistent with the historical pattern of such energetic impacts occurring only once every several decades on average. While smaller atmospheric entries happen regularly, the absence of any credible near-term risk keeps market-implied odds stable. Potential new data from wide-field surveys could still alter assessments if an undetected object emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$154,189Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign an 86% probability against a major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater in 2026 because ongoing near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner observatories has identified no threatening asteroids or comets on collision trajectories. Recent orbital refinements from ground-based and space-based telescopes continue to show all known large objects passing safely, consistent with the historical pattern of such energetic impacts occurring only once every several decades on average. While smaller atmospheric entries happen regularly, the absence of any credible near-term risk keeps market-implied odds stable. Potential new data from wide-field surveys could still alter assessments if an undetected object emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$154,189Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 86% probability against a major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater in 2026 because ongoing near-Earth object surveillance by NASA and partner observatories has identified no threatening asteroids or comets on collision trajectories. Recent orbital refinements from ground-based and space-based telescopes continue to show all known large objects passing safely, consistent with the historical pattern of such energetic impacts occurring only once every several decades on average. While smaller atmospheric entries happen regularly, the absence of any credible near-term risk keeps market-implied odds stable. Potential new data from wide-field surveys could still alter assessments if an undetected object emerges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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