Giorgia Meloni maintains firm control over Italy’s center-right coalition and a stable parliamentary majority, reinforced by her April 2026 parliamentary statement ruling out further resignations or early elections and committing the government to serve its full term. Recent setbacks, including the March justice referendum defeat and subsequent minor cabinet adjustments, have not triggered broader instability or opposition success in forcing a confidence vote. Traders assign a 97 percent implied probability that she remains prime minister through June 30 because no scheduled votes, diplomatic crises, or internal fractures currently threaten her position in the narrow remaining window. Only an abrupt coalition breakdown, major health event, or unforeseen scandal would realistically alter the outcome before the deadline.