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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
3%
chance
Yes
No
$11m Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
14%
$8m Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
45%
$6m Vol.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
47%
$73k Vol.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
32%
$25k Vol.
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
January 31
9%
March 31
36%
$944k Vol.
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
22%
$39k Vol.
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
16%
$91k Vol.
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
28%
$264k Vol.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
18%
$144k Vol.
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by January 31?
5%
$56k Vol.
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
42%
$60k Vol.
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
June 30
11%
December 31
$53k Vol.
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
24%
$170k Vol.
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
$51k Vol.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
34%
$36k Vol.
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
$23k Vol.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
21%
$5k Vol.
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
$14k Vol.
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
$19k Vol.
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