Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
2026 में कितने बड़े ज्वालामुखी विस्फोट (VEI ≥4) हुए?
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 वॉल्यूम
$1,079,004 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 वॉल्यूम
$1,079,004 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
0
$477,398 वॉल्यूम
61%
1
$260,191 वॉल्यूम
35%
2
$32,241 वॉल्यूम
4%
3
$26,240 वॉल्यूम
1%
4
$24,441 वॉल्यूम
<1%
5+
$258,493 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,079,004समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
वॉल्यूम
$1,079,004समाप्ति तिथि
31 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment heavily favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite dozens of active systems tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 criteria demand at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plumes exceeding 10 km, thresholds met only rarely with a long-term global average near 0.6 per year. Ongoing unrest at Semeru, Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira has produced ash plumes and pyroclastic flows but remains below these volume and height benchmarks. Continued magmatic recharge at these sites and weekly monitoring updates through year-end represent the main variables that could shift odds if any system escalates rapidly.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न