The market-implied odds of 94.3 percent against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stem primarily from the extreme historical rarity of such megaquakes, which require exceptional tectonic conditions like sustained fault ruptures spanning 1,000 kilometers or more along subduction zones. Global records from the USGS document only five events at or above this threshold since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku sequence; none have occurred in the intervening 15 years despite continuous global monitoring. Current seismic data show typical background activity and aftershocks from smaller quakes, without the precursor signals—such as accelerated strain accumulation—that precede great events in high-risk regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire. While an unforeseen stress trigger could theoretically produce one, the short remaining timeframe and established recurrence intervals make that outcome improbable under prevailing geological baselines.