The market for Miami’s highest temperature on May 16 reflects a near-certain outcome of 88-89°F based on final National Weather Service observations that recorded that exact peak. This reading aligns with mid-May climatological norms for South Florida, where subtropical high pressure and light southeasterly flow typically produce afternoon highs in the upper 80s under moderate humidity. Ensemble forecasts issued the prior day showed tight clustering around these values with little spread, confirming the observed result. Only an unforecasted cold front or unusually strong sea-breeze convergence could have shifted the high outside this narrow band, but neither occurred, leaving the market-implied odds fully supported by the verified data.