NOAA forecast models and National Weather Service guidance currently project a Seattle high temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for May 18, driven by moderate onshore flow and a typical spring marine layer that moderates but does not suppress daytime heating. This consensus aligns with climatological norms near 65°F for mid-May and places the outcome well above the 58°F threshold, producing the market's 99.4% implied probability. Persistent model agreement across GFS and ECMWF runs limits downside risk from stronger cooling advection. Only a sharp, unforecasted influx of Pacific air or measurement anomaly at the official Sea-Tac station could realistically shift the high below 58°F.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Seattle on May 18?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 18?
58°F or higher 99.4%
54-55°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
39°F or below
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
<1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
<1%
58°F or higher
99%
58°F or higher 99.4%
54-55°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
56-57°F <1%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
39°F or below
$470 Vol.
<1%
40-41°F
$360 Vol.
<1%
42-43°F
$460 Vol.
<1%
44-45°F
$460 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$360 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$360 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$460 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$425 Vol.
<1%
54-55°F
$360 Vol.
1%
56-57°F
$523 Vol.
<1%
58°F or higher
$478 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.NOAA forecast models and National Weather Service guidance currently project a Seattle high temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for May 18, driven by moderate onshore flow and a typical spring marine layer that moderates but does not suppress daytime heating. This consensus aligns with climatological norms near 65°F for mid-May and places the outcome well above the 58°F threshold, producing the market's 99.4% implied probability. Persistent model agreement across GFS and ECMWF runs limits downside risk from stronger cooling advection. Only a sharp, unforecasted influx of Pacific air or measurement anomaly at the official Sea-Tac station could realistically shift the high below 58°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$4,718Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.NOAA forecast models and National Weather Service guidance currently project a Seattle high temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for May 18, driven by moderate onshore flow and a typical spring marine layer that moderates but does not suppress daytime heating. This consensus aligns with climatological norms near 65°F for mid-May and places the outcome well above the 58°F threshold, producing the market's 99.4% implied probability. Persistent model agreement across GFS and ECMWF runs limits downside risk from stronger cooling advection. Only a sharp, unforecasted influx of Pacific air or measurement anomaly at the official Sea-Tac station could realistically shift the high below 58°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,718Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEANOAA forecast models and National Weather Service guidance currently project a Seattle high temperature in the low-to-mid 60s°F for May 18, driven by moderate onshore flow and a typical spring marine layer that moderates but does not suppress daytime heating. This consensus aligns with climatological norms near 65°F for mid-May and places the outcome well above the 58°F threshold, producing the market's 99.4% implied probability. Persistent model agreement across GFS and ECMWF runs limits downside risk from stronger cooling advection. Only a sharp, unforecasted influx of Pacific air or measurement anomaly at the official Sea-Tac station could realistically shift the high below 58°F.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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