Recent ensemble forecasts from global models place the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18 near the seasonal average for late spring, driving the market’s strongest implied probability toward 29 °C. Mediterranean sea-breeze circulation and modest onshore flow are expected to cap daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and stable high pressure favor clear skies and efficient solar radiation. Model spread remains wide because small shifts in the position of a weak upper-level trough could either enhance or suppress maximum values by 1–2 °C. Historical May data show typical highs of 26–28 °C, so any departure above 30 °C would require stronger subsidence or reduced marine influence. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System are scheduled before resolution and will likely tighten the range of outcomes traders are pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
29°C 24%
30°C 23%
28°C 16%
31°C 14%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
8%
28°C
16%
29°C
30%
30°C
23%
31°C
14%
32°C or higher
11%
29°C 24%
30°C 23%
28°C 16%
31°C 14%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$503 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$304 Vol.
1%
24°C
$137 Vol.
2%
25°C
$13 Vol.
3%
26°C
$110 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$87 Vol.
16%
29°C
$56 Vol.
30%
30°C
$124 Vol.
23%
31°C
$0 Vol.
14%
32°C or higher
$188 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models place the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18 near the seasonal average for late spring, driving the market’s strongest implied probability toward 29 °C. Mediterranean sea-breeze circulation and modest onshore flow are expected to cap daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and stable high pressure favor clear skies and efficient solar radiation. Model spread remains wide because small shifts in the position of a weak upper-level trough could either enhance or suppress maximum values by 1–2 °C. Historical May data show typical highs of 26–28 °C, so any departure above 30 °C would require stronger subsidence or reduced marine influence. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System are scheduled before resolution and will likely tighten the range of outcomes traders are pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,521Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models place the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18 near the seasonal average for late spring, driving the market’s strongest implied probability toward 29 °C. Mediterranean sea-breeze circulation and modest onshore flow are expected to cap daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and stable high pressure favor clear skies and efficient solar radiation. Model spread remains wide because small shifts in the position of a weak upper-level trough could either enhance or suppress maximum values by 1–2 °C. Historical May data show typical highs of 26–28 °C, so any departure above 30 °C would require stronger subsidence or reduced marine influence. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System are scheduled before resolution and will likely tighten the range of outcomes traders are pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,521Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from global models place the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18 near the seasonal average for late spring, driving the market’s strongest implied probability toward 29 °C. Mediterranean sea-breeze circulation and modest onshore flow are expected to cap daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and stable high pressure favor clear skies and efficient solar radiation. Model spread remains wide because small shifts in the position of a weak upper-level trough could either enhance or suppress maximum values by 1–2 °C. Historical May data show typical highs of 26–28 °C, so any departure above 30 °C would require stronger subsidence or reduced marine influence. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System are scheduled before resolution and will likely tighten the range of outcomes traders are pricing.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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