North Korea's military posture and pattern of calibrated provocations, such as missile tests and border incidents, have not escalated to preparations for a large-scale conventional invasion of South Korea. Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability to no invasion before 2027 due to robust U.S.-South Korea deterrence, including joint exercises and extended nuclear commitments, alongside North Korea's economic constraints and focus on asymmetric capabilities. Historical precedent since the 1950s armistice reinforces this consensus. Plausible shifts could stem from sudden leadership changes in Pyongyang, major miscalculations during heightened tensions, or unexpected diplomatic breakdowns, though no such triggers appear imminent in the current resolution window.