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Geopolitica·Ambassador

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

icon for Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Geopolitica·Ambassador

Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?

24% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
24% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,650
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States in December 2025, Lebanon in March 2026, and several Gulf states amid regional security concerns and Hezbollah-related tensions have addressed immediate diplomatic frictions. No new major incidents, official actions, or escalatory statements from key governments have emerged in the past six weeks to prompt additional removals. With the June 30 deadline approaching and ongoing diplomatic channels remaining active, traders assess limited near-term catalysts for another expulsion, aligning with the 76.5% implied probability on “No.” Scheduled regional summits and monitoring of Iran’s UN mission activities could still influence outcomes before resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,650
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 24% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 24¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 24% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Apr 30, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" è 24% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 24% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.