Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime high around 23-25°C for Istanbul on May 16, positioning 25°C or higher (44.5% market-implied odds) and exactly 24°C (30.5%) as leading outcomes amid model spread reflecting potential for enhanced solar heating under high-pressure influence. Mid-May climatology typically features average highs of 21-22°C, but recent observations through May 14-15 show mild positive temperature anomalies of 1-2°C above normal, with clear skies and southerly flows reducing cloud cover risks. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and overnight model refreshes could refine this, as short-range numerical weather prediction carries inherent uncertainty from boundary layer effects and urban heat island amplification in Istanbul. Traders weigh these against historical May 16 precedents rarely exceeding 27°C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 16?
25°C or higher 56%
24°C 27%
23°C 15%
22°C 3.8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 mag 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
15%
24°C
27%
25°C or higher
56%
25°C or higher 56%
24°C 27%
23°C 15%
22°C 3.8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 mag 2026
15°C or below
$1,041 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$545 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$420 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$674 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$488 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$509 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,457 Vol.
1%
22°C
$834 Vol.
4%
23°C
$396 Vol.
15%
24°C
$428 Vol.
27%
25°C or higher
$373 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime high around 23-25°C for Istanbul on May 16, positioning 25°C or higher (44.5% market-implied odds) and exactly 24°C (30.5%) as leading outcomes amid model spread reflecting potential for enhanced solar heating under high-pressure influence. Mid-May climatology typically features average highs of 21-22°C, but recent observations through May 14-15 show mild positive temperature anomalies of 1-2°C above normal, with clear skies and southerly flows reducing cloud cover risks. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and overnight model refreshes could refine this, as short-range numerical weather prediction carries inherent uncertainty from boundary layer effects and urban heat island amplification in Istanbul. Traders weigh these against historical May 16 precedents rarely exceeding 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$7,141Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime high around 23-25°C for Istanbul on May 16, positioning 25°C or higher (44.5% market-implied odds) and exactly 24°C (30.5%) as leading outcomes amid model spread reflecting potential for enhanced solar heating under high-pressure influence. Mid-May climatology typically features average highs of 21-22°C, but recent observations through May 14-15 show mild positive temperature anomalies of 1-2°C above normal, with clear skies and southerly flows reducing cloud cover risks. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and overnight model refreshes could refine this, as short-range numerical weather prediction carries inherent uncertainty from boundary layer effects and urban heat island amplification in Istanbul. Traders weigh these against historical May 16 precedents rarely exceeding 27°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,141Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converge on a daytime high around 23-25°C for Istanbul on May 16, positioning 25°C or higher (44.5% market-implied odds) and exactly 24°C (30.5%) as leading outcomes amid model spread reflecting potential for enhanced solar heating under high-pressure influence. Mid-May climatology typically features average highs of 21-22°C, but recent observations through May 14-15 show mild positive temperature anomalies of 1-2°C above normal, with clear skies and southerly flows reducing cloud cover risks. Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and overnight model refreshes could refine this, as short-range numerical weather prediction carries inherent uncertainty from boundary layer effects and urban heat island amplification in Istanbul. Traders weigh these against historical May 16 precedents rarely exceeding 27°C.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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