Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a precise daily maximum of 25°C in Tokyo on May 16, anchoring trader consensus at near-certainty for that outcome. Stable high pressure over the Kanto region combined with light southerly flow limits vertical mixing and keeps surface temperatures within a narrow band above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Short-range mesoscale runs show minimal spread, with no strong warm advection or clear-sky insolation expected to push readings higher. Final resolution hinges on the verified whole-degree maximum reported by JMA at day’s end; only an improbable late-day heat burst exceeding 25°C before sunset or a measurement revision could realistically alter the result.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$117,984 Vol.
$117,984 Vol.
16 mag 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$117,984 Vol.
$117,984 Vol.
16 mag 2026
18°C or below
$7,440 Vol.
No
19°C
$11,358 Vol.
No
20°C
$10,108 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,608 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,736 Vol.
No
23°C
$11,418 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,317 Vol.
No
25°C
$14,023 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$10,591 Vol.
No
27°C
$13,301 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$20,084 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a precise daily maximum of 25°C in Tokyo on May 16, anchoring trader consensus at near-certainty for that outcome. Stable high pressure over the Kanto region combined with light southerly flow limits vertical mixing and keeps surface temperatures within a narrow band above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Short-range mesoscale runs show minimal spread, with no strong warm advection or clear-sky insolation expected to push readings higher. Final resolution hinges on the verified whole-degree maximum reported by JMA at day’s end; only an improbable late-day heat burst exceeding 25°C before sunset or a measurement revision could realistically alter the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ET
Volume
$117,984Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a precise daily maximum of 25°C in Tokyo on May 16, anchoring trader consensus at near-certainty for that outcome. Stable high pressure over the Kanto region combined with light southerly flow limits vertical mixing and keeps surface temperatures within a narrow band above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Short-range mesoscale runs show minimal spread, with no strong warm advection or clear-sky insolation expected to push readings higher. Final resolution hinges on the verified whole-degree maximum reported by JMA at day’s end; only an improbable late-day heat burst exceeding 25°C before sunset or a measurement revision could realistically alter the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$117,984Data di fine
16 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 14, 2026, 12:23 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Yes
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Yes
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a precise daily maximum of 25°C in Tokyo on May 16, anchoring trader consensus at near-certainty for that outcome. Stable high pressure over the Kanto region combined with light southerly flow limits vertical mixing and keeps surface temperatures within a narrow band above the mid-May climatological average of 22–24°C at the Otemachi station. Short-range mesoscale runs show minimal spread, with no strong warm advection or clear-sky insolation expected to push readings higher. Final resolution hinges on the verified whole-degree maximum reported by JMA at day’s end; only an improbable late-day heat burst exceeding 25°C before sunset or a measurement revision could realistically alter the result.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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