Recent diplomatic momentum following the February 2026 ceasefire and U.S.-Israeli strikes has positioned negotiators to pursue a new nuclear agreement, with mediation by Oman and Pakistan producing framework proposals on uranium enrichment limits and sanctions relief. President Trump has publicly highlighted progress on key elements such as halting enrichment and removing stockpiles, while Iranian officials have signaled openness to multi-year suspensions in exchange for economic concessions. These developments sustain trader consensus around a 60.5 percent implied probability of resolution before 2027, reflecting the administration's incentive to secure verifiable curbs ahead of the next election cycle and Iran's need to address sanctions and internal pressures. Persistent gaps on enrichment duration and inspection protocols remain the primary obstacles.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,332,685 Vol.
$1,332,685 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,332,685 Vol.
$1,332,685 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum following the February 2026 ceasefire and U.S.-Israeli strikes has positioned negotiators to pursue a new nuclear agreement, with mediation by Oman and Pakistan producing framework proposals on uranium enrichment limits and sanctions relief. President Trump has publicly highlighted progress on key elements such as halting enrichment and removing stockpiles, while Iranian officials have signaled openness to multi-year suspensions in exchange for economic concessions. These developments sustain trader consensus around a 60.5 percent implied probability of resolution before 2027, reflecting the administration's incentive to secure verifiable curbs ahead of the next election cycle and Iran's need to address sanctions and internal pressures. Persistent gaps on enrichment duration and inspection protocols remain the primary obstacles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volume
$1,332,685Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum following the February 2026 ceasefire and U.S.-Israeli strikes has positioned negotiators to pursue a new nuclear agreement, with mediation by Oman and Pakistan producing framework proposals on uranium enrichment limits and sanctions relief. President Trump has publicly highlighted progress on key elements such as halting enrichment and removing stockpiles, while Iranian officials have signaled openness to multi-year suspensions in exchange for economic concessions. These developments sustain trader consensus around a 60.5 percent implied probability of resolution before 2027, reflecting the administration's incentive to secure verifiable curbs ahead of the next election cycle and Iran's need to address sanctions and internal pressures. Persistent gaps on enrichment duration and inspection protocols remain the primary obstacles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,332,685Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum following the February 2026 ceasefire and U.S.-Israeli strikes has positioned negotiators to pursue a new nuclear agreement, with mediation by Oman and Pakistan producing framework proposals on uranium enrichment limits and sanctions relief. President Trump has publicly highlighted progress on key elements such as halting enrichment and removing stockpiles, while Iranian officials have signaled openness to multi-year suspensions in exchange for economic concessions. These developments sustain trader consensus around a 60.5 percent implied probability of resolution before 2027, reflecting the administration's incentive to secure verifiable curbs ahead of the next election cycle and Iran's need to address sanctions and internal pressures. Persistent gaps on enrichment duration and inspection protocols remain the primary obstacles.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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