European leaders have framed their response to the ongoing US-Iran conflict through repeated joint statements stressing defensive measures and diplomatic engagement rather than offensive strikes. France, the United Kingdom, and Germany condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional targets while clarifying non-participation in US-Israeli operations and urging renewed talks. Recent deployments, including UK and French naval assets to secure Strait of Hormuz navigation, remain limited to protection of interests without targeting Iranian territory. Domestic political opposition, economic pressures from energy disruptions, and failed US-Iran negotiations have reinforced this cautious approach. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these constraints, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt a shift toward direct action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFrancia, Regno Unito o Germania colpiranno l'Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Francia, Regno Unito o Germania colpiranno l'Iran entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$1,374,512 Vol.
$1,374,512 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$1,374,512 Vol.
$1,374,512 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have framed their response to the ongoing US-Iran conflict through repeated joint statements stressing defensive measures and diplomatic engagement rather than offensive strikes. France, the United Kingdom, and Germany condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional targets while clarifying non-participation in US-Israeli operations and urging renewed talks. Recent deployments, including UK and French naval assets to secure Strait of Hormuz navigation, remain limited to protection of interests without targeting Iranian territory. Domestic political opposition, economic pressures from energy disruptions, and failed US-Iran negotiations have reinforced this cautious approach. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these constraints, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt a shift toward direct action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
Volume
$1,374,512Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have framed their response to the ongoing US-Iran conflict through repeated joint statements stressing defensive measures and diplomatic engagement rather than offensive strikes. France, the United Kingdom, and Germany condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional targets while clarifying non-participation in US-Israeli operations and urging renewed talks. Recent deployments, including UK and French naval assets to secure Strait of Hormuz navigation, remain limited to protection of interests without targeting Iranian territory. Domestic political opposition, economic pressures from energy disruptions, and failed US-Iran negotiations have reinforced this cautious approach. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these constraints, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt a shift toward direct action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,374,512Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European leaders have framed their response to the ongoing US-Iran conflict through repeated joint statements stressing defensive measures and diplomatic engagement rather than offensive strikes. France, the United Kingdom, and Germany condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional targets while clarifying non-participation in US-Israeli operations and urging renewed talks. Recent deployments, including UK and French naval assets to secure Strait of Hormuz navigation, remain limited to protection of interests without targeting Iranian territory. Domestic political opposition, economic pressures from energy disruptions, and failed US-Iran negotiations have reinforced this cautious approach. Trader consensus at 95.9% for no strike by June 30 reflects these constraints, though a major Iranian attack on European assets or bases could still prompt a shift toward direct action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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