Current trader consensus on a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 at roughly 37% Yes reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database and Sentry monitoring, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy yield. Mid-year data confirm only minor bolides, with the largest reported event releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts annually from small, often undetected asteroids. Ongoing satellite and infrasound networks continue to track atmospheric entries through year-end, while recent close flybys of newly discovered objects like 2026 JH2 have produced zero impact risk after orbital refinement. Fresh model runs and expanded survey coverage reinforce this low-probability outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current trader consensus on a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 at roughly 37% Yes reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database and Sentry monitoring, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy yield. Mid-year data confirm only minor bolides, with the largest reported event releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts annually from small, often undetected asteroids. Ongoing satellite and infrasound networks continue to track atmospheric entries through year-end, while recent close flybys of newly discovered objects like 2026 JH2 have produced zero impact risk after orbital refinement. Fresh model runs and expanded survey coverage reinforce this low-probability outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$300,653終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current trader consensus on a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 at roughly 37% Yes reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database and Sentry monitoring, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy yield. Mid-year data confirm only minor bolides, with the largest reported event releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts annually from small, often undetected asteroids. Ongoing satellite and infrasound networks continue to track atmospheric entries through year-end, while recent close flybys of newly discovered objects like 2026 JH2 have produced zero impact risk after orbital refinement. Fresh model runs and expanded survey coverage reinforce this low-probability outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$300,653終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current trader consensus on a 5kt meteor strike in 2026 at roughly 37% Yes reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database and Sentry monitoring, which show no known near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of delivering that energy yield. Mid-year data confirm only minor bolides, with the largest reported event releasing just 0.25 kt, consistent with the historical global rate of 0.2–0.5 such impacts annually from small, often undetected asteroids. Ongoing satellite and infrasound networks continue to track atmospheric entries through year-end, while recent close flybys of newly discovered objects like 2026 JH2 have produced zero impact risk after orbital refinement. Fresh model runs and expanded survey coverage reinforce this low-probability outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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