**No event meeting the 5 kt threshold has been recorded in 2026 through late August, and NASA CNEOS Sentry plus ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** Historical flux models derived from satellite and infrasound data (Brown et al., 2002 and updates) indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet observed events this year—including the March Ohio bolide at ~0.25 kt—have remained well below the threshold. With most of the year elapsed and no model-predicted hazards, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of a qualifying natural meteoroid airburst at approximately 21–28%, reflecting both the Poisson-like variability in small-impactor rates and the high completeness of current global detection networks. Continued CNEOS fireball updates through December will determine resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
29% 確率
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
29% 確率
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No event meeting the 5 kt threshold has been recorded in 2026 through late August, and NASA CNEOS Sentry plus ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** Historical flux models derived from satellite and infrasound data (Brown et al., 2002 and updates) indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet observed events this year—including the March Ohio bolide at ~0.25 kt—have remained well below the threshold. With most of the year elapsed and no model-predicted hazards, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of a qualifying natural meteoroid airburst at approximately 21–28%, reflecting both the Poisson-like variability in small-impactor rates and the high completeness of current global detection networks. Continued CNEOS fireball updates through December will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$312,478終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No event meeting the 5 kt threshold has been recorded in 2026 through late August, and NASA CNEOS Sentry plus ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** Historical flux models derived from satellite and infrasound data (Brown et al., 2002 and updates) indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet observed events this year—including the March Ohio bolide at ~0.25 kt—have remained well below the threshold. With most of the year elapsed and no model-predicted hazards, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of a qualifying natural meteoroid airburst at approximately 21–28%, reflecting both the Poisson-like variability in small-impactor rates and the high completeness of current global detection networks. Continued CNEOS fireball updates through December will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$312,478終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No event meeting the 5 kt threshold has been recorded in 2026 through late August, and NASA CNEOS Sentry plus ESA monitoring show no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing such an airburst.** Historical flux models derived from satellite and infrasound data (Brown et al., 2002 and updates) indicate meter-scale impactors release ~5 kt TNT equivalent roughly once per year on average, yet observed events this year—including the March Ohio bolide at ~0.25 kt—have remained well below the threshold. With most of the year elapsed and no model-predicted hazards, trader consensus prices the remaining probability of a qualifying natural meteoroid airburst at approximately 21–28%, reflecting both the Poisson-like variability in small-impactor rates and the high completeness of current global detection networks. Continued CNEOS fireball updates through December will determine resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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