NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing impact risks for 2026, with all recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3 confirmed safe, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied probability for "No" 5kt meteor strike. Despite a Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March Ohio event with ~0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—no bolides have reached the 5 kilotons threshold year-to-date per satellite sensor data. Historical bolide frequencies from CNEOS indicate ~1 event annually exceeding this energy globally, but with nearly half the year elapsed without one, traders have adjusted remaining odds downward amid inherent detection uncertainties for small, undetected meteoroids. Ongoing NEO surveys provide key upcoming updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$300,045 Vol.
$300,045 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing impact risks for 2026, with all recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3 confirmed safe, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied probability for "No" 5kt meteor strike. Despite a Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March Ohio event with ~0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—no bolides have reached the 5 kilotons threshold year-to-date per satellite sensor data. Historical bolide frequencies from CNEOS indicate ~1 event annually exceeding this energy globally, but with nearly half the year elapsed without one, traders have adjusted remaining odds downward amid inherent detection uncertainties for small, undetected meteoroids. Ongoing NEO surveys provide key upcoming updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$300,045終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing impact risks for 2026, with all recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3 confirmed safe, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied probability for "No" 5kt meteor strike. Despite a Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March Ohio event with ~0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—no bolides have reached the 5 kilotons threshold year-to-date per satellite sensor data. Historical bolide frequencies from CNEOS indicate ~1 event annually exceeding this energy globally, but with nearly half the year elapsed without one, traders have adjusted remaining odds downward amid inherent detection uncertainties for small, undetected meteoroids. Ongoing NEO surveys provide key upcoming updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
音量
$300,045終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) posing impact risks for 2026, with all recent close approaches like 2026 JH2 and 2026 FM3 confirmed safe, anchoring trader consensus at 69% implied probability for "No" 5kt meteor strike. Despite a Q1 2026 surge in fireballs—such as the March Ohio event with ~0.25 kilotons TNT equivalent—no bolides have reached the 5 kilotons threshold year-to-date per satellite sensor data. Historical bolide frequencies from CNEOS indicate ~1 event annually exceeding this energy globally, but with nearly half the year elapsed without one, traders have adjusted remaining odds downward amid inherent detection uncertainties for small, undetected meteoroids. Ongoing NEO surveys provide key upcoming updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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