Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/06/30
新規
新規
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
音量
$7,650終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$7,650終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic actions, including Argentina’s April expulsion of Iran’s chargé d’affaires over IRGC disputes and U.S. disclosures of the prior December removal of Iran’s deputy UN envoy on national security grounds, have been followed by a sustained lull in new expulsions. No government has announced additional persona non grata declarations since early April, even as Gulf states maintain earlier March measures amid proxy tensions and missile concerns. Traders assign a 76.5 percent implied probability to “No” by June 30, reflecting the current absence of fresh catalysts that would prompt further expulsions within the resolution window. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and the lack of verified escalatory statements through mid-May reinforce this market consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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