Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the aftermath of the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of pre-crisis levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid U.S. blockades, Iranian shipping controls, and reported incidents. As of early May 2026, data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show traffic running at roughly 3-5% of normal volumes, with attempts to establish safe corridors like Project Freedom paused and multiple vessels remaining stranded. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the lowest outcome bracket, as no major diplomatic or military de-escalation has occurred to restore regular tanker and cargo flows before the end of the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日0-10 87%
10-20 7%
20-40 3.0%
60+ 3.0%
$321,893 Vol.
$321,893 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-10
87%
10-20
7%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 7%
20-40 3.0%
60+ 3.0%
$321,893 Vol.
$321,893 Vol.
2026/05/31
0-10
$171,041 Vol.
87%
10-20
$43,558 Vol.
7%
20-40
$34,199 Vol.
3%
40-60
$27,619 Vol.
2%
60+
$45,476 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the aftermath of the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of pre-crisis levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid U.S. blockades, Iranian shipping controls, and reported incidents. As of early May 2026, data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show traffic running at roughly 3-5% of normal volumes, with attempts to establish safe corridors like Project Freedom paused and multiple vessels remaining stranded. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the lowest outcome bracket, as no major diplomatic or military de-escalation has occurred to restore regular tanker and cargo flows before the end of the month.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
音量
$321,893終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the aftermath of the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of pre-crisis levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid U.S. blockades, Iranian shipping controls, and reported incidents. As of early May 2026, data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show traffic running at roughly 3-5% of normal volumes, with attempts to establish safe corridors like Project Freedom paused and multiple vessels remaining stranded. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the lowest outcome bracket, as no major diplomatic or military de-escalation has occurred to restore regular tanker and cargo flows before the end of the month.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$321,893終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the aftermath of the February 2026 conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of pre-crisis levels, with daily crossings often in the single digits amid U.S. blockades, Iranian shipping controls, and reported incidents. As of early May 2026, data from sources including Lloyd’s List and Kpler show traffic running at roughly 3-5% of normal volumes, with attempts to establish safe corridors like Project Freedom paused and multiple vessels remaining stranded. These conditions sustain trader consensus around the lowest outcome bracket, as no major diplomatic or military de-escalation has occurred to restore regular tanker and cargo flows before the end of the month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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